Hargeisa (SLpost)- A debate over Ethiopia’s potential recognition of Somaliland has intensified after Ethiopia’s ambassador to Israel warned that such a move could complicate counterterrorism operations in Somalia, prompting a strong rebuttal from Somaliland’s diplomatic representative in Israel.
The exchange followed an interview with i24NEWS TV in which Ethiopian Ambassador to Israel Tesfaye Yetayeh Anteneh was asked whether Addis Ababa was considering recognising Somaliland and what was preventing it from making such a decision.
Anteneh maintained that Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia, aimed at combating the militant group Al-Shabaab, was a key factor complicating the issue.
“Al-Shabaab is a very dangerous terrorist organisation which has links with al-Qaeda and Boko Haram,” the ambassador said, explaining that Ethiopia had deployed troops inside Somalia to fight the group.
He warned that recognising Somaliland could prompt the Somali government to demand the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, potentially creating security vulnerabilities.
“The moment Ethiopia recognises Somaliland, the Somali government will request Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from Somalia. And Al-Shabaab will get a free ride to attack both Somalia, Somaliland and spill over to Ethiopia,” Anteneh said, describing the matter as “a very delicate issue.”
Somaliland rejects Ethiopia’s security concerns
Somaliland’s ambassador to Israel, Dr Mohamed Hagi, challenged the assessment, arguing that recognition would strengthen Ethiopia’s security and strategic position rather than undermine it.
In a post on X, Hagi said he was convinced that Ethiopia stood to gain substantial strategic, economic and security benefits from recognising Somaliland, while facing no corresponding security threat from such a decision.
He argued that the Somali government’s growing alignment with countries competing with Ethiopia posed a more significant strategic concern for Addis Ababa.
“What Mogadishu is doing to Ethiopia is far more damaging, as it increasingly aligns itself with Ethiopia’s rivals and provides them with a platform to advance their interests against Ethiopia,” Hagi wrote.
The Somaliland envoy maintained that recognition would strengthen Ethiopia’s regional influence, enhance its strategic reach and establish a dependable partnership in the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland’s security record at the centre of the debate
Ambassador Hagi also disputed the suggestion that recognition could expose Somaliland to greater militant threats, pointing to the country’s record of preventing Al-Shabaab and piracy from establishing the safe havens they have exploited elsewhere in the region.
He described Somaliland as a strategic security partner, citing decades of resilience, local governance and sustained efforts to maintain stability.
His argument places Somaliland’s relative security at the centre of its case for international recognition, particularly as regional governments weigh the implications of instability in Somalia and the strategic importance of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Ethiopia’s long-term regional strategy
Hagi further stressed that Ethiopia should not base its long-term foreign policy exclusively on existing military arrangements in Somalia.
He said African forces could not be expected to remain in the country indefinitely and encouraged Ethiopian policymakers to prepare for the eventual withdrawal of international and regional security forces.
“In any way, the African forces cannot be expected to remain in Somalia indefinitely,” Hagi wrote, calling for strategic planning beyond the current security arrangements.
He concluded that Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland could strengthen Ethiopia’s security, accelerate economic growth and expand its influence across the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region.
A strategic dilemma for Addis Ababa
The exchange highlights competing assessments of the security and geopolitical consequences of Somaliland’s potential recognition by Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian ambassador’s position reflects concern that a diplomatic decision could affect bilateral relations with Mogadishu and complicate Ethiopia’s counterterrorism operations. Somaliland’s representative, by contrast, contends that recognition would provide Ethiopia with a reliable regional partner and strengthen its position amid intensifying competition in the Horn of Africa.
The issue also intersects with Ethiopia’s longstanding interest in securing reliable access to the sea and Somaliland’s efforts to secure international recognition of its independence.
Whether Addis Ababa ultimately prioritises its existing security arrangements with Somalia or the potential strategic advantages of a closer relationship with Somaliland remains a significant question for the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape.
