Sectarian Violence and Armed Conflict
Djibouti has descended into sectarian violence after the government suffered defeats against Afar fighters of the Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD). These fighters seized over a dozen military posts in regions like Tadjoura, Obock, and Dikhil. In retaliation, government loyalists in Djibouti City targeted Afar neighborhoods, leading to extensive property destruction, burning of homes, and looting.
The situation reflects longstanding grievances of the Afar community, who have been historically marginalized despite accounting for roughly 80% of the country’s land area. The conflict’s escalation from peripheral regions into the capital represents a dangerous new phase and threatens the country’s social fabric.
Internet Shutdown and Security Concerns
Following recent clashes, including a deadly attack by FRUD on government forces, the authorities instituted an internet shutdown across Djibouti. This move appears to have been an attempt to curb the spread of protest videos via social media and to control the flow of information. Independent reports suggest casualties among soldiers, ongoing unrest, and a tense atmosphere amid a lack of clear communication from both the government and opposition. Djibouti’s internal instability is raising alarm, particularly given the presence of critical foreign military bases (US, China, France, Japan, Italy) that rely on the country’s stability.
Regional Diplomacy and Infrastructure
Despite internal tensions, Djibouti continues to play a regional role. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Djibouti for talks focused on boosting strategic cargo transportation via the Ethio-Djibouti Railway. The discussions included expanding rail connections to key ports and addressing logistical bottlenecks, highlighting Djibouti’s importance for Ethiopian imports and exports.
Economic Outlook
According to the IMF, Djibouti’s economy remains very bad as a result of Berbera’s competition. Djibouti has had the monopoly of Ethiopia import and export in the last 30 when Eritrea has gained is independence and Ethiopia ended up to be landlock. Additionaly risks such as regional instability, possible trade diversion, and pressing fiscal challenges remain. The government is focusing on fiscal consolidation and negotiating with creditors to ensure debt sustainability.
In Conclusion, January 2026 has brought a sharp increase in internal violence and instability to Djibouti, alongside ongoing regional engagement and efforts to sustain economic growth and social development. The crisis poses a major challenge for both domestic security and the foreign interests relying on Djibouti’s stability.
Written Ismail Qodax (PHD)
